Lance Mortlock: Disaster Proof - How To Prepare For Multiple Futures

Jun 7

Written By Jayson Krause

Lance Mortlock

Senior Strategy Partner with Ernst & Young

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The Executive Commute Podcast with Jayson Krause: Show Notes

Lance Mortlock: Disaster Proof: How to Prepare for Multiple Futures

Bio: Lance Mortlock

Lance Mortlock is a strategy partner with Ernst & Young, based in Canada, and the author of Disaster Proof: Scenario Planning for a Post-Pandemic Future released in Spring 2021 with Barlow Books.

Lance has provided management consulting services over 20 years to more than 60 organizations in 11 countries overseeing hundreds of projects at leading national and international mining, oil and gas, power and utility, manufacturing, airline, and government and public sector organizations.

Lance has an MBA with distinction from Cardiff Business School, has completed various executive courses at MIT, Stanford Graduate School of Business, Harvard Business School, and INSEAD. He is a visiting professor at the University of Calgary Haskayne School of Business and a board member for the Canadian Energy & Climate Nexus.

Part 1: The Early Days

Quotes

“It’s so important when you’re driving at the future strategy for a company to do it in a way that develops nimbleness and flexibility.”
“Scenario planning is not about forecasting the future.”
“There are things out there that you can’t see, and you’ll never truly be able to see everything.”
“Technology plays an important role in seeing around the corner.”

Summary

Lance Mortlock is a Senior Strategy Partner with Ernst & Young in Canada. We started the interview with Lance describing his childhood as a naughty kid in Tunbridge Wells, Southeast England. He explained how his focus shifted at age 15 from a ‘naughty’ kid who didn’t like school to a focused boy who wanted to make something of his life. A comment from a former teacher to his parents that he would never amount to anything in life fueled Lance to do better and prove her wrong.

Lance recalled the key lessons his parents passed on to him, which included encouraging him to always work hard to find success, and empowering him to make his own life decisions. He emulated his dad’s work ethic as he became older plus he had some powerful figures in his life that inspired him.

He described how working in the oil and gas industry with Shell, led to his career in the scenario planning space. He explained the importance of driving a company strategy that develops nimbleness and flexibility to challenge leadership teams and boards to think differently.

“Scenario planning is more about ‘how can I make sense of the world’?” Lance explained what scenario planning is and what it’s not. He also explained why scenario planning includes a company strategically looking at the possibility of 2-4 futures as opposed to moonshot thinking. Scenario planning evolved from military thinking and continues to evolve over the years. Lance shared how he formatted his book about scenario planning; making it different from what is already known.

He described the role of technology in helping companies see around the corner to things like the pandemic and make informed decisions about the future.

Timeline

[3:35] Lance described his childhood and how things shifted at age 15 for the better.
[9:35] How he was encouraged and empowered by his parents to become more in life.
[12:25] How working with Shell led him to the scenario planning space.
[15:10] Understanding what is and is not scenario planning.
[17:26] Scenario planning vs. moonshot thinking.
[18:59] How scenario planning and military thinking relate, plus how Lance approached it in his book.
[23:18] The role of technology in making informed choices in uncertain times.

Part 2: Why organizations fail despite great plans+ biggest success story

Quotes:

“Using different tools like scenario planning forces groups of people to expand their mental morals to explore more possibilities.”
“It’s important to challenge yourself to take a step back and not have the answer.”
“You cannot always be prepared for everything.”

Summary

Lance continued to explain how we as humans fall into the trap of looking for confirmation on what we’re doing. Divergent thinking is the use of tools like scenario planning that forces groups of people to expand their mental morals to explore more possibilities. He explained why it is important to challenge yourself not to have answers right away as a leader.

Lance believes that companies cannot be prepared for everything because preparation in itself is very expensive, which couldn’t have been ideal during the pandemic. He instead advocates for having the dialogue of accepting that not every possibility requires preparation. Everyone in a strategy role in an organization needs to spend time in scenario planning equation and execution.

Lance shared a difficult situation he worked on in an organization. The culture was very challenging and the strategy didn’t work. He then shared a different scenario where the strategy worked very successfully. For a strategy to become a success, an organization has to be open to challenging ideas and have courage.

“I think of pivot points being those things that you would do differently based on a future playing out.” Lance talked about the difference between pivot points and shock absorbers in an organization.

He shared his admiration for Shell because of its ability to make sense of its environment as part of its scenario planning strategy.

Episode Timeline:

[2:33] The importance of not always converging to answer as a leader.
[5:12] Why you don’t need strategic action for every single possibility.
[10:41] Lance described a situation where strategy failed due to the culture.
[14:50] Lance’s greatest strategy success story and why it turned out so.
[19:40] Pivot points vs. shock absorbers in an organization.
[22:40] The importance of making sense of your environment to manage uncertainty.

Part 3: Preparing for the next global disruption+ 3 things every business should plan for

Quotes:

“The scenario planning thinking applies to your own career and the moves that you would make from a career perspective.”
“There are always opportunities to learn, explore, think, and do different things.”
“We have to fundamentally change the way we live our lives.”
“If we don’t change those habits that are deeply ingrained in our consumer behavior, we can’t tackle climate change.”

Summary

“Scenarios in some way help with the thinking process that may lead to wanting to transform.” Transformation leads to the preparedness of any possibility, which could result in a turnaround of a company or just the need to retain the current success. Lance explained the importance of companies staying prepared for what may happen post-pandemic.

He described scenario planning to small businesses as ‘very relevant’ when it’s all-encompassing and well-researched. Scenario planning is just a way of thinking and exploring the uncertainties in your environment, and it’s very applicable to an individual, not just a broad organization.

In the best-case scenario, we could be headed to recovery post-pandemic, which could lead to a major period of boom. But companies should also be prepared for other challenges around the corner. The big disruptions that companies should be preparing for include; the expansion of the Chinese economy, artificial intelligence, and energy transition.

Lance described a few of the six steps that he lays down in his book, Disaster Proof, for companies to start with the scenario planning process.

He explained why he loves working with different challenges and the post-pandemic business world. He’s concerned about the environment and the existential threat we have due to climate change and the fact that we need to change.

In the end, Lance answered my rapid-fire questions. He answered questions with sharp and one-sentence answers. Thank you for listening to this 3-part knowledge-filled interview!

Episode Timeline:

[2:20] Thinking through scenarios and preparing for post-pandemic possibilities.
[5:18] Why scenario planning is very relevant to small businesses.
[7:09] How to apply scenario planning thinking to your individual career moves.
[9:58] How to stay prepared for what the post-pandemic period might bring with it.
[12:21] The 3 big disruptions that companies should be preparing for post-pandemic.
[17:22] Steps on how to start the scenario planning process for companies.
[22:46] What Lance is excited about and concerned about for the future.
[26:13] Lance answered some rapid-fire questions.